Cole Hamels, His Legacy in Philadelphia, and the End of an Era

The last week has been an interesting one for Philadelphia Phillies fans.

Cole Hamels no-hitter, the first (solo) no-hitter of his career, came on his final start with the Phillies. That set off a week of reflection that reached its zenith when the news broke Wednesday night that Hamels would be traded to the Texas Rangers.

The trade was one the Phillies had to make, with Cole Hamels about to turn 32 this offseason and the Phillies a few years away from making another run. By all accounts the return, highlighted by pitcher Jake Thompson, outfielder Nick Williams, and catcher Jorge Alfaro, the Rangers 3rd, 4th, and 5th ranked prospects in Baseball America’s midseason prospect rankings, respectively, was a good one. Nothing in this article will argue against the trade.

(It’s a trade necessary only because of the Phillies’ prolonged failure in the draft and inability to restock the minors with, and develop, talent, and that’s a very big part of why this is frustrating as well. Phillies fans should be able to enjoy their homegrown ace performing at an elite level on a competitive team, but that’s not the situation the Phillies find themselves in, and they have only themselves to blame for that. But that’s the topic of another article).

But even in a trade that makes perfect rational sense, a trade that the team had to make, and a trade that was well-executed by the team, there’s still a level of sentimentality and sadness that comes along with it for many Phillies fans. It’s only natural.

It’s where I’m at.

It’s not just that the Phillies are losing a great player. A player who came up through their system, who fans watched develop from a skinny, inexperienced 19 year old into a star. Into a 3x all-star, an NLCS MVP, a World Series MVP, and a champion.

A player who has the 4th highest WAR, wins above replacement, among Phillies pitchers in team history, the 3rd best ERA+, and whose 8.6 strikeouts per 9 innings is the most in Phillies history among starters who have pitched at least 1,000 innings with the team.

A player who was, undeniably, great.

Any time a fanbase loses a great player, it’s going to be a solemn day for many. But it wasn’t just that he was great. It wasn’t just that he was a key ingredient on the only championship team that many in this town have known. In many ways, this feels like the official closing of the greatest era of Phillies baseball in the team’s history.

Sure, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Carlos Ruiz still stand from those great teams, but they are mere shadows of what they used to be. Their names and faces are familiar, even if their performance on the diamond isn’t. Watching them play baseball is almost depressing in a way, as their presence reminds fans of the greatness the franchise once enjoyed, but then their play reminds you of how far they’ve fallen.

Hamels, on the other hand, is still performing. In many ways, he’s only gotten better since the glorious run of 2008. Last year Hamels had an ERA+ of 151 and a FIP, for fielding independent pitching, of 3.07, both of which were the best marks of his career, and his FIP of 3.21 this year better than the 3.72 he had in 2008.

He’s missing more bats this year, 9.6 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, than he has at any point in his career, and his 0.7 home runs given up per 9 innings pitched over the last 2 years is lower than what he gave up during the Phillies magical run.

Watching Hamels pitch every 5th day allowed Phillies fans brief glimpses back to that magical run, and trading a player still performing at a prime level removes the one final, small strand Phillies fans had tying that back to that magical era.

Perhaps it’s for the best. While the play on the field, the recent 10-2 stretch of baseball notwithstanding, isn’t much to be excited about, there is reason to be excited about the future. With guys like Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, and Ken Giles already showing promise at the major league level, prospects like J.P. Crawford, Roman Quinn, Kelly Dugan, Jesse Biddle, Zach Elfin, and Aaron Altherr in the minors, along with the acquisition of Thompson, Williams, and Alfaro, and the upcoming 1st pick, the Phillies some pretty exciting prospects, and some good organizational depth. Perhaps Phillies fans needed that last fiber connecting them to the past to be severed to really embrace what could be an exciting youth movement.

The Perplexing Hate Cole Hamels Still Receives

The other part of this past week that I just don’t understand is how there’s still a vocal minority in the Delaware Valley that do not like Cole Hamels.

The most frequent criticism has been Hamels’ 2009 season, where he went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA, the only season his ERA+ (97) was below league average. The disappointing season concluded with a clunker in the world series, where he gave up 5 runs in 4+ innings of work, and ended the postseason with a 7.58 ERA in 4 starts. His quote after his final start, that he couldn’t wait for the season to end, has stuck with some fans ever since.

Yet that season was really the only blemish on an otherwise amazingly consistent career. As we’ve watched one-time aces, such as C.C. Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, and Justin Verlander, get hit around on a regular basis, Cole Hamels has remained a model of consistency. Hamels has been in the top-20 pitchers in WAR every season since 2010, and has accumulated the 6th most WAR in that span, with a 3.07 ERA and 8.7 strikeouts per 9 innings between 2010 and 2015. While Hamels was a World Series MVP in 2008, he found ways to improve upon even those lofty standards.

Sure, 2009 was the wrong year to have a down year, but those down years are part of baseball. Some have taken that series to prove Hamels isn’t “clutch” or that he “shrinks under pressure”. But If any fanbase in baseball should be skeptical about our ability to accurately measure “clutch” it should be the Phillies, as both Hamels and Lee alternated between flat-out dominant and disappointing postseason performances. I find it hard to say that a World Series MVP isn’t clutch. It’s probably much more likely that we measure clutch, and randomness, poorly.

While Hamels said after the season that he let his struggles get into his head, most of the peripheral stats suggest Hamels’ struggles were more bad luck than anything.

Hamels struck out 7.8 batters per 9 innings in 2009, the exact same rate that he struck battles out in 2008. He walked 2.0 batters per 9 innings in 2009, which was down slightly from the 2.1 he walked in ’08. He gave up the exact same amount of home runs, 1.1 per 9 innings, in 2008 and 2009.

The real difference came in base hits, as he gave up nearly 2 more hits per 9 innings in ’09 than he did in ’08. Opponents got hits on 31.7% of the balls they put in play against Hamels in 2009, a huge jump over the 25.9% rate in 2008, despite the fact that the percentage of line drives they hit against Hamels actually decreased in 2009 (20.8% vs 21.8% in ’08), and despite the fact that they hit less home runs for every fly ball (10.7% in ’09 vs 11.2% in ’08). According to fangraphs, 29.4% of the balls in play against Hamels in ’08 were hit at a “hard” speed, vs only 25.6% in 2009.

His xFIP, which measures his “expected fielding independent pitching”, in 2009 (3.63) was almost the exact same as in 2008 (3.58).

By virtually all metrics available, Hamels was not significantly worse in 2009 than he was in 2008. He was missing bats at the same rate, his control was the same, and opponents were actually making worse contact. Sometimes in professional sports, especially in baseball where pitchers and batters have so little control over where the ball will land, players will get unlucky from time to time. Cole Hamels got unlucky in 2009, and his stats returned to the norm over the next 5 years of his otherwise amazingly consistent career.

So what’s left? He has a high voice? That he occasionally takes an extra day of rest? That he’s into yoga? Was born on the wrong coast?

We’re talking about a guy who was a critical component in the only championship many in this town have ever experienced. A homegrown talent who is among the best handful of pitchers most in this town have ever witnessed pitch for their favorite team. A guy who, by all accounts, is among the hardest workers and most competitive people on the team, despite criticisms by some of the PHD-level armchair psychologists who think they can tell everything from body language and facial expressions.

We’re talking about a guy who has made himself a fixture in the community. A guy who setup his own charitable foundation to fund education for children, both in Philadelphia and in Africa, with Hamels paying the administrative expenses himself because he was sick of a portion of his previous donations not going to their intended cause.

If these petty complaints, or the fact that he was unlucky in 2009, are how you want to remember Hamels, be my guest. You’re entitled to your opinion.

And I’m entitled to think your opinion is crazy. I will instead remember Hamels as a homegrown talent, one of the best pitchers in Phillies history, a 3x all-star, a hard worker, a great guy, and a champion. That seems more fitting.